Service Plays Tuesday 1/6/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SOCCER EXPERTS

NOW 19-4 SIDES AND TOTALS
6-2 PARLAYS

England Carling Cup:
Tottenham Hotspur vs. Burnley under 3
06/01/09
03:00 PM

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wild Bill

Under 77 Ball St-Tulsa (5 units)

Ball St defense will be the difference in this tilt with a new coach taking the helm with a very good QB in Davis vs another good QB for Tulsa, however, Ball St has played a much better schedule and should prevail 34-24.

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Raging Bull Handicappers

Soccer:

Barcelona/Atletico Madrid o3 +110 (Spanish Copa del Rey)

MK Dons/Peterborough United o2.5 -150 (English League One)

 

[SteveMcQueen]

ethan law bowl goy-tulsa, from another site!! Not confirmed!

 

[cubancigarwinner]

Ethan Law | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet

Syndicate play: The first and only play the syndicate collectively this entire Bowl season was TULSA -2.5 over Ball State. The line in this contest opened with Ball State laying 3 points and has since moved almost 6 points to its current number where Tulsa is now laying -2.5. The Syndicate is never shy of "fading" the public and this selection is no exception. After some considerable discussion the group decided to place its second largest wager of the season $65,000 wager on TULSA -1. Note: the line has since moved 1.5 points since we placed our selection, but we were comfortable laying up to 6 if needed

Ethan's thoughts: When we started the meeting, all three advisors had Tulsa as their top "value play' on the board this Bowl season. Both teams come into this game with their worst performances of the season. Tulsa basically threw away the Conference USA championship game with a whopping seven turnovers against East Carolina. Meanwhile, Ball State coughed up the ball 5 times on their way to an embarrassing loss to give away the MAC championship game. Tulsa comes into this country with the nations #1 offense, averaging 565 yards per game, with the Gus Malzahn offense striking a tremendous balance finishing seventh in the nation in rushing and seventh in passing. Ball State is also loaded with offensive firepower, finishing first in the MAC in scoring and total yards averaging 459 yards and close to 37 points per game. Its hard to forget last season when Tulsa took on Bowling Green in what was supposed to be a close fought game, and that turned into a 63-7 rout by Tulsa. They also took on one of the best teams in the country in Arkansas and played that one close with a 23-20 loss.

Add the fact that Ball State's head coach left the team for San Diego State and we have a team that not only lost two in a row, but one that has to try and stop the nations #1 offensive unit. Despite possessing the better defense, Tulsa should still control the line of scrimmage (like they have all season) giving enough protection for their offensive starts to get open as they pour on a boatload of points. Ball State will not be able to trade scores at this pace. Lay the small number.

Verdict: Ball State 24, Tulsa 41
SYNDICATE BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR: TULSA -2.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CKO 3-6

10 TULSA over Ball State
Late Score Forecast:
TULSA 49 - Ball State 35
(Tuesday, January 6, 2009)
After cruising through regular season undefeated, Ball State suffered back-to-back bummers during first couple weeks of December. First, the Cardinals' dreams of a perfect campaign were dashed in surprising MAC title game loss to Buffalo. Then, highly-regarded HC Brady Hoke, who successfully revived moribund BSU program over last 6 seasons, bolted for San Diego State. Good luck to new mentor Stan Parrish (Hoke's o.c.), as he must not only try to heal Cards' deeply-wounded psyche, but also tackle the daunting task of finding some way to slow down juggernaut Tulsa attack (47 ppg & 565 ypg--both 2nd in nation). Absence of injured WR Brennan Marion no big deal for Golden Hurricane, who have deeeeeeep cache of dangerous weapons. Tulsa crushed Bowling Green, 63-7, in LY's GMAC Bowl, and Hurricane looks ready to blow away another MAC foe TY.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bruce Feldman 20-10

Ball State 48, Tulsa 38: I don't see Tulsa's defense slowing down Nate Davis enough to win a shootout. Tulsa is one of the nation's worst pass defense units while BSU is a little more formidable on defense. Tulsa also is a lot sloppier taking care of the ball (96th in turnover margin).
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Logical Approach 30-28 ( 15-14 SIDES AND 15-14 TOTALS )


GMAC Bowl - Mobile, AL - Tuesday, January 6, 2009


Both teams are here under very similar circumstances - bitter losses in Conference Championship games to end the regular season. There is a major difference, however. Ball State's loss to Buffalo in the MAC Title game was their first of the season, ending their hopes for a 13-0 season headed into the Bowls. Tulsa's loss to East Carolina in the Conference USA Title game was their third of the season but was even more bitter as it was their second straight loss in the CUSA title game and this one came at home. Tulsa went through most of the season unbeaten, finally losing at Arkansas after an 8-0 start. They followed with a loss the following week back in conference play, 70-30 at Houston. Tulsa has the more potent offense although Ball State also has put plenty of points on the board all season. Both teams lost coaches since the end of the regular season as Ball State's head coach is now at San Diego State while Tulsa's offensive coordinator - so responsible for Tulsa's high powered offense - is headed to Auburn but is expected to remain at Tulsa for this game. Tulsa has the overall stronger offense but Ball State has put up the better defensive stats. Tulsa's offense was surprisingly well balanced considering they averaged 310 passing yards per game. They also averaged 258 yards on the ground. Neither team really stepped up in class during the regular season although Ball State had an early season home win against Navy. Tulsa's high risk offense did result in twice as many turnovers than Ball State (30 vs 15) while both defenses were just average in forcing them. Tulsa's offense led the nation averaging 7.30 yards per play while Ball State was not far behind at 6.89 ypp. Surprisingly Ball State's edge in defensive yards per play was just 0.6 yards with Tulsa actually more effective at stopping the running game (3.9 ypr vs 4.3 ypr). In the end this game should be decided by the offenses and while Tulsa's is more prone to mistakes, it is also more likely to complete the big play and finish off drives. In what is a very even and attractive matchup the call is for Tulsa to win 38-34, making


TULSA a 3 Star Selection and the
UNDER a 2 Star selection
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pointwise 12-20

BALL STATE (12-1) vs TULSA (10-3)
TUESDAY, JANUARY 6
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Ball St ......... 35.5 ...37-19 ... 24-19 .. 193-142 ...267-206 .. + 8 . Tulsa
Tulsa ........... 33.6 ...47-29 ... 28-20 .. 255-134 ...310-258 .. - 8 . by 3.3 Pts
ANALYSIS
A pair of very similar squads meet here. The Cardinals of Ball State returned 17
starters from LY's International Bowl squad, & didn't disappoint, running through
the regular season, unscathed, while climbing to the #12 spot in the nation. As a
matter of fact, behind the leadership of QB Davis (3,446 yds, 66.9%, 26 TDs, 7
INTs), & RB Lewis (1,316 yds, 11 TDs), they averaged 37 ppg in their 15 games
preceding their MAC title match with Buffalo. The roof fell in on them in that one,
as no less than 5 TOs, including fumble return TDs of 92 & 74 yds in a 3:33 span
of the 3rd, resulted in a 42-24 loss, despite 30-18 FD & 503-301 yd edges. And,
as one can see from the above stats, that is certainly foreign to the Cards, who
had a plus 11 TO edge during the course of the regular season. A finely balanced
squad, with all but one of its wins coming by double figures. Defensively, their
55th ranking isn't all that impressive, but it's a full 30 spots better than their
opponents in this one, the Golden Hurricane of Tulsa, which comes in at #85 in
stop unit ability. That armor chink includes an astounding 70-30 thrashing at the
hands of Houston, directly on the heels of their 9-game run being snapped at
Arkansas, when the Hogs (+7) returned a KO 96 yds for the winning TD in the
final 0:22. Ouch! The 'Canes had a 184-50 RY edge in that one. By the way,
Tulsa had 15 TOs in its 3 losses, including SEVEN in its C-USA title loss to East
Carolina (5 Johnson INTs). He wound up with 3,866 PYs (64.8%) & 43 TDs, with
Adams at 1,316 RYs & 11 TDs. When the dust settled, Tulsa ranked #2 in the
nation in total & scoring "O". And don't forget LY's 63-7 destruction of BowlingGreen
in this same bowl, with a 562-229 yd edge. Cane call, if the TO doesn't kill 'em.
PROPHECY: TULSA 41 - Ball State 37 RATING: 4
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MARC LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK 15-16

GMAC BOWL
Ladd-Peebles Stadium • Mobile, AL
UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
Tulsa over Ball St by 4
Poor Ball State. The Gonads enter tonight’s BCS Championship tablesetter
victimized by a Double Bubble Burst. Not only did BSU see its
hopes for a perfect 13-0 season and a MAC title blown to smithereens
in a stunning 42-24 loss to Buffalo, just days later the team saw head
coach (as in MAC Head Coach of the Year) Brady Hoke skip town after
engineering a deal to take over at San Diego State. WTF? We can see
bailing out on a program if you’re heading to a plum job (Rodriguez
bolting early to Michigan, for example) but the Aztecs? Must have
been the $700,000 per year offer from SDSU – almost twice what Hoke
was slated to earn in 2009 with Ball State. The Hokester put in six years
at Muncie and the program was fi nally coming to fruition under his
direction so his players – who will be led by new coach Stan Parrish
– must be extremely disappointed by recent events. Meanwhile, Tulsa
backers can only pray that Ball State doesn’t show up for this game
wearing white uniforms. East Carolina wore white in its recent C-USA
title bout with Tulsa and Hurricane QB David Johnson completed 5 of
his passes to the wrong team. Johnson also lost a fumble, accounting
for 6 of Tulsa’s 7 turnovers that doomed the Oklahomans, 27-24. Today’s
game looks to be a battle of wills between the ‘Nadsters’ defense that
led the MAC with 16 INTs, ranked #2 in points allowed and #3 in total
yards against a Golden Hurrricane attack that fi nished in the Top 10
nationally in points scored, yards rushing and yards passing. We’ll have
to side with a Tulsa no-huddle offense that set a conference scoring
record with 616 points over a Ball State ‘D’ that just got torched for
42 by the Bulls. That notion is bolstered by the fact that .846 or better
Bowl favorites off one loss exact are just 5-9 ATS (1-4 SU and ATS since
1998) – and that BSU faced the weakest schedule of ALL Bowlers this
year. Meanwhile, C-USA Bowl teams are 8-1 ATS versus an opponent
off a SU and ATS loss and 8-2 ATS when rested (3-1 SU and ATS under
current coach Graham). There’s no denying the Gonads fi eld a potent
offense of their own with QB Nate Davis and RB MiQuale Lewis but the
continuity that produced their 12-game win streak has been severely
disrupted. And even though both squads enter off losses, Tulsa did a
much better job of playing from behind against ECU. Adios, Ball State…
we’re backing the Big Breeze
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET 12-21


GMAC BOWL
BALL STATE (12-1) vs. TULSA (10-3)
Tuesday, January 6 Night at Mobile, AL (FieldTurf)
*Tulsa 49 - Ball State 35—Ahhh, second chances. We’re sure Stan
Parrish never thought he’d get another chance as a head coach after recording
a 2-30-1 mark in three years at Kansas State in the late ‘80s. But after a
circuitous route through the assistant ranks (including a recent stint as Ball
State’s o.c.), Parrish indeed gets another chance, succeeding Brady Hoke, who
bolted to San Diego State following the Cardinals’ loss to Buffalo in the MAC title
game. Thus, Parrish’s first game calling the shots for Ball State will be in this
bowl game at Mobile.
Recent postseason history doesn’t provide an accurate road map for such
end-of-season coaching switches, but sources in the MAC don’t necessarily
view this change as a positive, especially considering how the Cards unraveled
in the conference title game and the abruptness of Hoke’s departure. Moreover,
we have reservations just how good Ball State really was in ‘08, with a forgiving
non-conference schedule and modest MAC opposition hardly replicating the
potency of explosive Tulsa (46 ppg!). Keep in mind, too, that the Cards, after
a similar regular-season schedule, were undressed by Big East rep Rutgers by
a 52-30 count in last year’s International Bowl.
The bowl game is a chance for Card QB Nate Davis (26 TDP) to redeem
himself after a mistake-filled performance in the MAC title game, but trading
scoring shots with Golden Hurricane QB David Johnson (3866 YP & 43 TDP!)
might be a tall order. Remember, Tulsa has something to prove as well after
blowing the C-USA title game on its home field vs. East Carolina. And the
Golden Hurricane are not about to be intimated by any MAC rep after blowing
away Bowling Green, 63-7, in this same bowl a year ago.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS 10 - 4


GMAC BOWL
Both teams are off conf championship losses. Tulsa’s balanced offense is forecasted to top 500 yards including 215 yards rushing. PP calls for them to win and fi nish with a 505-440 yard edge
4★ TULSA 39 (if dog, 3★if fav) BALL STATE 38
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brand X Sports, Mike Volpe Bowl Package 15-23


GMAC Bowl Tuesday January 6
Ball State Cardinals versus Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
Line Ball State -2 Total 77

Not a bad game but c’mon on JANUARY 6.

3* Ball State Cardinals
Bonus 3* UNDER 77
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS MEMO 17-15


GMAC BOWL
Tulsa vs. Ball State -2.5 O/U 77.5
Tuesday, January 6, 8 pm ET ESPN - Mobile, Ala.
Recommendation: Ball State

Ball State’s loss to Buffalo should not have come as an absolute shock. With nearly everyone surrounding the program talking about an undefeated season and a potential upgrade to the Bowl assignment, the focus just wasn’t there. Now we have to wonder about the motivation for the Cardinals after having their perfect
season end in the conference championship game. It was especially tough considering that Ball State out gained Buffalo by over 200 yards but allowed two defensive touchdowns. Tulsa comes in with a similar disappointment. After starting the season
8-0, the Golden Hurricane dropped two straight and then as a double-digit favorite in the C-USA Championship, ran into a defensive buzz saw for the second straight year. In the loss to ECU, Tulsa moved the ball but seven turnovers were too much to overcome. In fact in Tulsa’s three losses they coughed the ball up 15 times and had just two takeaways. It is a very important stat when you consider that in those three games, even with a 641-yard outburst by Houston, the Golden Hurricane produced more total yards. Last season Tulsa hung 67 in their bowl game win over a Bowling Green team that ranked as one of the worst teams in the MAC. That Falcons squad allowed 32 ppg while this Ball State team is quite capable ranking second at 18.6 ppg allowed. However, no one on the Cardinals’ schedule featured a prolific passing attack. The top four passing teams Ball State played (all three directional Michigan schools and Buffalo) posted modest numbers (266 ypg, 8 TDs, 5 INTs). The top five defensive teams in C-USA played in the East Division. Tulsa didn’t play two of those schools and in the games against the other three, Tulsa was held to 10 points below their season average. Tulsa faced eight teams that allowed 30 ppg or more and Ball State played seven teams that allowed at least 30 ppg. So in all reality the offensive
stats and the quality of competition
for these two teams are virtually even. Both teams have prolific quarterbacks
and offenses that have had little trouble scoring against all competition.
The only games in which these two teams faltered were when multiple turnovers occurred. The advantage in the game might be found with Ball State’s seemingly better defense. If we eliminate Buffalo’s two defensive touchdowns, no team scored more than 30 points on Ball State. Tulsa gave up 30 points or more in five games and played only four games decided by a touchdown
or less. In the four games decided by seven or less, Tulsa was 2-2 and was outscored 123-122. In assuming both squads will march the ball up and down the field all it will take is a turnover in the red zone or a special teams play to gain the edge. Tulsa’s success has been against teams that allow them to do whatever
they want with the football and we project that Ball State is better equipped to make that key stop or big defensive play. With that in mind, we’ll back the Cardinals laying the short price.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nelly’s Green Sheet 28 -34 ( 18-13 SIDES AND 10-21 TOTALS)


TUESDAY, JANUARY 6, 2009
GMAC BOWL 7:00 PM
Ladd-Peebles Stadium – Mobile, Alabama ESPN
Ball State (-2½) Tulsa (77)
This could be a tough spot for Ball State as Coach Hoke has decided to
move on to San Diego State. Hoke will not coach this game and after losing
the undefeated bid with Buffalo’s upset in the MAC Championship game
there could be questionable motivation for the Cardinals. Tulsa posted huge
scoring and yardage numbers this season but fell victim to turnovers in
several games late in the year including the surprising loss at home in the
Conference USA title game. These teams both played among the weakest
schedules in the nation but had great offensive numbers and suspect
defensive statistics. Ball State was burned by turnovers in its last game but
on the whole the Cardinals have had a very positive turnover margin, while
interceptions have cost Tulsa a few games late in the year. Although Ball
State delivered an incredible season it will be difficult to get the team ready to
play in these circumstances. Tulsa has the potential to put up huge numbers
and the difference in the defensive numbers is mainly due to the pace that
Tulsa plays and the soft schedule faced by Ball State. In a shootout Ball
State will have a tough time keeping up and Tulsa should have a motivation
edge coming off a sour end to the season. This has to be a bit of a letdown
bowl game for the Cardinals after talk of facing Boise. TULSA 41-27


RATING 3: TULSA (+2½)
RATING 3: ‘UNDER 77’
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kevin O'Neil's "The Max" - 10-15

Tulsa by 6
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS REPORTER 19-13

BALL STATEover TULSA by 4
BALL STATE, 38-34.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 20-10

GMAC BOWL

First meeting. Ball St HC Hoke and his staff visited TU in the offssn to discuss offensive philosophy, so there shouldn’t be a lot of surprises here. BSU set a tm rec with 12 wins and Hoke was a member of the ‘78
Ball St tm that had the previous high (10). The Cards were 12-0 and ranked #12 with just 10 TO’s heading into the MAC Champ gm but had 5 TO’s vs Buffalo incl 2 ret’d for TD’s and they suffered their 1st loss. This
is the Cards’ 5th bowl (0-4 SU, 1-2 ATS) and 2nd str under Hoke. They lost to Rutgers 52-30 (+10’) LY in the International Bowl which was also played in Jan. Hoke was named Region 3 AFCA Cch of Yr and has been mentioned in reference to some open HC spots along with Graham. Tulsa started the season 8-0 (6-2 ATS) and looked like a poss BCS buster, but lost B2B gms at Ark and UH and with their loss to EC in the CUSA Title gm, have lost 3 of L/5 (1-4 ATS). TU is making its 4th str bowl appearance (2-1 SU/ATS) and 2nd str trip to the GMAC Bowl under Graham. In LY’s gm TU thumped MAC foe BG 63-7 (-5), which set an NCAA bowl rec for MOV. TU played 3 bowl caliber tms, going 1-2 SU/ATS being outscored 42-39 &
outgained 457-435. BSU played 5 bowl caliber tms going 4-1 SU/ATS outscoring them 36-25 and outgaining them 476-360. both are experienced as BSU has 14 upperclassmen sts, incl 9 Sr’s, while TU has 17 upperclassmen sts with 8 Sr’s. TU has struggled on the road TY going 2-4 ATS, but they have not been a dog all ssn while BSU was 5-2 ATS away from home including 4-2 ATS as an AF. Ball St has the MAC’s #1 off (our #30) avg 37 ppg and 459 ypg and set tm records in both pts and yds. QB Davis (MAC Off POY) holds most of BSU’s ssn/career pass records despite being just a Jr. Davis will sit down after the ssn to decide if he should declare early for the NFL draft as he is considered a 1st day
pick by many. The big diff in the Cardinals’ off TY is a healthy RB Lewis, whose first 2 yrs were shortened by ssn ending inj’s. TY he has remained healthy and is the MAC’s #1 rusher and gives Ball St a balanced
attack. BSU lost WR Love, who was leading the NCAA in rec, to a career ending inj in the 4th gm of the yr. His replacement Orsbon is the tm’s top rec as a True Fr. TE Hill is the #2 receiver and is the tm’s top
redzone threat. The OL avg 6’4” 293 and has 4 players who started all 13 gms and the 3 Sr members were all 1st Tm MAC (C Gerberry, RT Brewster and LT Ramsey). The OL has opened holes for 5.1 ypc while allowing just 12 sacks (3.2%). The Cards’ D is another reason for their big season as they all’d 19 ppg and 348 ypg after all’g 28 ppg and 432 ypg LY. The youthful and small DL (avg 6’2” 253 with 0 Sr) allowed 4.3 ypc with just 5.5 of the tm’s 21 sks led by DE Crawford’s 7 tfl. The LB corps is led by WLB Haines, a 4 yr starter, and SLB Meeks who leads the tm in sks. The secondary is all’g 206 ypg (57%) with a 14-16 ratio and are led by two Sr CB’s in Hill and Buice. Ball St has our #35 ST, despite the loss of Love who set the MAC single ssn record for all-purp and KR yds LY. The Cards had two 2nd Tm MAC players in P Miller and PR Hill. BSU avg 23.5 ypr on KR and 12.8 on PR while all’g 19.7 on KR and 6.5 on PR. TU has our #4 off avg 565 ypg (#2 in NCAA) and 47 ppg (#2 in NCAA), but is only avg 34 ppg the L/5. QB Johnson was on pace to break Colt Brennan’s NCAA record for pass eff, but threw 5 int in the 27-24 title gm loss and fell to #2. Johnson has thrown 18 int in 13 gms, but 9 have come over the L/5. Johnson
was sk’d just 20x’s TY and is protected by an OL that avg 6’4” 315 while paving the way for 5.4 ypc. The OL features 2 Sr’s and has 4 players who started all 13 gms. RB Adams became just the 2nd player in school history to go over 3,000 career rush yds and has posted B2B 1,000 yd ssns. WR Marion is the big play wideout as he leads the NCAA (25.9 ypc!) but inj’d his knee in the CUSA Title gm and may not be healthy here (CS). The Hurricane has our #95 D and is all’g 29 ppg and 391 ypg. TU’s 3-3-5 scheme has produced 36 sks (#12 in NCAA) by bringing pressure from different angles as 16 diff players have a sk. The front 3 avg 6’3” 292 and has been solid vs the run all’g 3.9 ypc (134 ypg). The secondary plays a lot of man-to-man coverage and is #108 in our pass eff D all’g 258 ypg (61%) with a 32-8 ratio. The ST’s are ranked #96. K Tracy has limited range as he has not made a FG over 37 yds this season. These are two exciting offenses with each led by a productive QB. Both dropped their conf champ gms and both also faced bottom 5 sked’s. Tulsa has a diverse offense with many RB’s and WR’s adding production while Ball St is reliant on RB Lewis. This gives Tulsa an edge scheming defensively and
since the Hurricane is an underdog there’s great value in this bowl.
FORECAST: TULSA BY 7
RATING: 3* TULSA
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CONFIDENTIAL TIP-OFF BASKETBALL
CTO

*CREIGHTON over Northern Iowa...Matchups were all wrong last year for UNI against Creighton, which won and covered handily in both
meetings. And doubt things will be any better this season for Panthers, whose new-look backcourt continues to fluster HC Jacobson due
to its lack of consistency. That’s hardly the case for balanced and versatile Creighton bunch that features dynamic G play typical of Dana
Altman-coached teams, especially sharpshooting sr. Woodfox (17.8 ppg & 54% treys!) and last year’s Valley Newcomer of the Year, soph
G Stinnett. And with 6-9 soph Lawson emerging as legit post threat, plus capable bench (9-deep), Bluejays pick up where they left off LY
vs. UNI. *CREIGHTON 79 - Northern Iowa 54 RATING - 11